What do numbers predict for the Azarenka vs. Radwanska Australian Open quarterfinal?


After showing you his numbers analysis for the quarterfinal between Caroline Wozniacki and Kim Clijsters, our stats expert Omair made another Australian Open quarterfinal preview for you, Victoria Azarenka vs. Agnieszka Radwanska.

Agnieszka Radwanska has lost a set so far at the Australian Open, while Victoria Azarenka is yet to lose more than four games in a set. Despite that, when we look at numbers, Radwanska comes out as the cleaner one.

If we look at the Grand Slam results, we see that it is the sixth quarterfinal appearance for Azarenka and fifth for Radwanska, while Radwanska has yet to move beyond the quarterfinal stage of a major tournament, Azarenka did it at last year’s Wimbledon when she lost to the eventual champion, Petra Kvitova, in the semis. Interestingly, it was Azarenka’s fifth Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance when she finally moved beyond the quarterfinal stage, and this is Radwanska’s fifth quarterfinal appearance. Azarenka and Radwanska are friends – will Radwanska follow in the footsteps of her friend and make it fifth time lucky or will she fade away, only time will tell us.

If we look at their head-to-head record, Azarenka has won six of their nine encounters and their latest coming at this year’s Sydney in the semifinal, where Azarenka won in three sets.

Let us have a look at what the numbers suggest about their form so far at the Australian Open.

When we look at numbers, they are quite close in almost all departments. However, Azarenka has an upper hand by a huge margin in the 2nd serve winning percentage, but she also has a huge number of double faults, averaging at 4+ per match so far in the tournament (equal to Kim Clijsters’ double faults).

However, where Radwanska comes out on top is the differential of winners and unforced errors. Radwanska has a huge positive differential of 27, while Azarenka has only a positive differential of three. This is where it will become critical in my opinion, if Radwanska can keep this up in her match against Azarenka she will come out at top.

Another major department where Radwanska leads is the break point conversion percentage. Radwanska is up by about 7%.

If Radwanska plays in the quarterfinals with the same stats, I guess she will win, but Azarenka has been on fire this year and she has yet to lose a match. Furthermore, she has been very calm in her matches even when she was down and that has made all the difference.

Radwanska will have an uphill battle to book a spot in her first ever Grand Slam semifinal. The numbers say that Radwanska will win, and I will be rooting for Radwanska, but something inside me says that Azarenka will come out on top. Who do you think will emerge victorious? And who will you be rooting for? (photos: © Neal Trousdale)


  1. Like you Omair, I’ll be rooting for Radwanska. Unfortunately AzaRENKAAaaa has been in cracking form so far this year and SHOULD come out on top.

  2. Omiar,it is really hard to predict, just check my dismal record. I think Azarenka is the best player in the WTA and will be #1 soon and at year end. I really like Radwanska too. She will definitely be in the top 10 again this year.

  3. @ John Bolan – It definitely is hard to predict of course. It was just one way of looking in to the quarter-finals, analysing who has better chances. Azarenka no doubt has a great game, let us see who gets to the top at the end of the year.


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